Golden Knights at Lightning Preview and GDT: So you’re saying there is a chance

Game #34 – Vegas Golden Knights (21-7-5) at Tampa Bay Lightning (15-13-5)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, ESPN+,

Opponent’s Site: Knights on Ice

Preview

Despite the fact that I occasionally post odds and random betting advice in these previews, I don’t actually bet that much on hockey. It’s mainly because the most recent states I’ve lived in (Utah and Georgia) frown on sports gambling. Still, I try to keep an eye on things because it’s a good indicator on how the sharps in Vegas think the general public views a team (remember, they don’t really care who wins, they just want roughly equal bets coming in on both teams in a game).

So consider me somewhat surprised to see the Lightning, the frustrating stuck-in-neutral, one-good- game-two-bad-games Lightning were favored (-115) at home against the team with the best record in the NHL, the Vegas Golden Knights (-105). Granted, I haven’t paid much attention to the exploits of the defending Stanley Cup Champions, so I wasn’t aware that all wasn’t well in Sin City.

It seems that, much like last year, the Golden Knights can’t keep a goaltender healthy to save their lives. Nominal starter Adin Hill has suffered multiple injury setbacks recently and lasted just 6:25 in his return on December 18th, a 6-3 win against the Ottawa Senators. Logan Thompson relieved him in that game, but also appeared to injure himself. He started their next game, a 6-3 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, but was pulled after allowing 6 goals. Jiri Patera, a 24-year-old with 3 games of NHL experience at that point, finished the game.

Afterwards, it was announced that Thompson was day-to-day and Vegas called up Isiah Saville from their AHL affiliate in Henderson. It’s likely that Patera will get the start in net if Thompson isn’t able to go. The question facing the Lightning now is, can they get shots and chances through Vegas’ vaunted defense.

Vegas is allowing just 10.31 high-danger chances against at 5v5 play this season, which is the 7th best number in the league. Despite their recent high-scoring games, they are still only allowing 2.06 goals per game at 5v5 as well. It’s going to be a challenge for the Lightning, who have struggled to maintain consistent offensive pressure at times during the season. We saw them do it in their last outing against St. Louis, where they were aggressive on the forecheck and dictated large portions of play during the game. So, and this is the analysis you pay for, they should do more of that.

They aren’t without their own injury issues though. Mikhail Sergachev was hobbled by a Colton Parayko shot in that game and was seen in a knee-roller to keep wait off of it yesterday.

The official word from the team was that he is still undergoing evaluation. Coach Cooper confirmed that he will not play tonight so Haydn Fleury will stay in the line-up. The 27-year-old had one of his best games in a Lightning uniform in the game against St. Louis, logging more than 20 minutes and putting up a goal and an assist.

Even without Sergachev, the Lightning have a chance to steal a couple of points from a team higher on them in the standings. It’ll be on the entire team to make sure they’re able to break out of the zone cleanly, which should set them up to get through the neutral zone and tilt the ice to Vegas’ end. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to get some pucks on Patera early and see how the rookie with four games of NHL experience handles it.

It’s the last game at home before the holiday break and a chance to build a little momentum, hopefully the Lightning take advantage.

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Nick Paul – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Steven Stamkos
Conor Sheary – Tyler Motte – Alex Barré-Boulet

Tanner Jeannot – Luke Glendening – Austin Watson

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Erik Cernak
Calvin de Haan – Darren Raddysh
Haydn Fleury – Nick Perbix

Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonas Johansson

Vegas Golden Knights Projected Lines

Forwards
Ivan Barbashev – Jack Eichel – Mark Stone

Pavel Dorofeyev – Chandler Stephenson – Jonathan Marchessault

Paul Cotter – William Karlsson – Nicolas Roy

William Carrier – Brett Howden – Michael Amadio

Defenders
Alec Martinez – Alex Pietrangelo

Ben Hutton – Brayden McNabb

Nicolas Hague – Zach Whitecloud

Goalies

Jiri Patera

Isiah Saville

Question of the Night

Is a dream a lie if it don’t come true, or is it something worse?