Lightning at Canadiens Preview: No time to bask in the afterglow

Game #76 – Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Centre Bell
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, TSN2, RDS, ESPN+, HULU

Opponent’s Site: Habs’ Eyes on the Prize

Preview

After the big win against the Maple Leafs, there is a simple rule for the Lightning tonight:

They worked hard to narrow the gap between them and Toronto to four points and with a win tonight they can shave it to two. More importantly, with a win, they are two points away from claiming a playoff spot. Standing in their way tonight is a rested Montreal Canadiens team. They may not be playing for the postseason, but they are more than willing to hurt another team’s chances.

Montreal has won four of their last five games and three of those victories were against playoff teams (Panthers, Flyers, and the Avalanche). Marty St. Louis has his charges playing hard down the stretch. While it might be hurting their draft chances a bit, it is showing a young team how to win big games late in the season.

Part of the reason for their success is the emergence of former first round pick Juraj Slafkovsky. It’s been a bumpy road for the big Slovakian, but it looks like he is finding his game at the NHL level. On the season he has 15 goals and 27 assists in 74 games. He’s pointed in 11 of the last 12 games with 2 goals and 11 assists and has made the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield a young line with a lot of talent. They’re going to be trouble in the coming years.

Speaking of Suzuki, the 24-year-old is having a career season and has established himself as the top scorer for the team with 32 goals and 39 assists while playing over 21 minutes per game. The captain of the Habs has improved every season he’s been with the team and is an assist away from his third straight 40-assist season. Not too shabby for a team that has been struggling over the past few seasons.

The issue with a young team like the Canadiens is that after the top line, the depth drops off quite a bit as Joel Armia (14 goals) and Alex Newhook (12 goals) are the top scorers who aren’t on the top line. They’re starting to build their blueline as well, but their big prospects (Lane Huston and David Reinbacher) are still a little ways away from joining the team.

Even on the road, the Lightning should be able to win the match-up game against Montreal, but they have to keep their effort level up. There is a good chance that Matt Tomkins will get a chance to win his second start in a row (coincidentally enough, his last game in the NHL was a 5-3 win over Montreal). The team in front of him has been playing dramatically better than when he was last wearing the Lightning bolt on his chest and hopefully that continues.

One of the highlights of the win against Toronto was that three of their four goals came at 5v5 (with the other on a 6-on-5 delayed penalty). As elite as their power play is, they have to consistently score at even strength if they want to keep this season going past the first round (oddly enough, with the way the league calls penalties in the first round, a strong power play is a big asset).

Some of their scoring has started to spread out as well. Over the last seven games, Brayden Point and Anthony Duclair (aka the top line) have five goals combined, but Nick Paul (2 goals), Steven Stamkos (2 goals), Luke Glendening (1 goal), Anthony Cirelli (1 goal), and Mitch Chaffee (1 goal) have also scored. That depth, which we weren’t seeing earlier in the season is a huge factor in their winning stretch.

A quick note. With a win tonight, the Bolts will make sure that their road record finishes above .500, which at certain points earlier this season wasn’t looking too likely of a result. Good for them. Also, good for Brandon Hagel for hitting the 200 point mark in his career last night.

It was a solid start to the road trip for the Lightning, but they can’t rest on the victory. There is still work to be done, and a win tonight will go a long way to getting them where they need to go.

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Anthony Duclair – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Steven Stamkos – Anthony Cirelli – Brandon Hagel
Mikey Eyssimont – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee

Tanner Jeannot – Luke Glendening – Tyler Motte

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Haydn Fleury – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Matt Dumba

Goalies
Matt Tomkins

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Lines based on the game yesterday and with the assumption that Matt Tomkins gets the start.

Montreal Canadiens Projected Lines

Forwards
Cole Caufield – Nick Suzuki – Juraj Slafkovsky

Joel Armia – Alex Newhook – Brendan Gallagher

Jesse Ylonen – Jake Evans – Josh Anderson

Michael Pezzetta – Colin White – Rafael Harvey-Pinard

Defenders
Mike Matheson – Kaiden Guhle

Arber Xhekaj – David Savard

Jayden Struble – Jordan Harris

Goalies
Samuel Montembeault

Cayden Primeau

Lines based on Daily Face Off’s predictions.

The Playoff Race