Lightning at Maple Leafs Preview: Begin Again (a winning streak that is)

Game #75 – Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Scotiabank Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, SN, TVAS, ESPN+, Hulu

Opponent’s Site: Pension Plan Puppets

Preview

This should be a fun game, eh? Some of the pressure on the Maple Leafs was relieved when they won their last outing and the Lightning lost theirs. The gap between the two teams expanded to six points, so the Bolts will now need a little help to catch and pass the Leafs in the standings over the next two weeks. Still, it’s a good barometer at how the Lightning will deal with playoff-like pressure. While neither team has officially locked in a postseason spot, they’re both likely to make it, and could face off in a later round.

Much like the game against the Red Wings, the Lightning face an opponent they haven’t beaten yet this year. Earlier in the season, when the Lightning were still figuring out who they were, they lost overtime games in late October and early November. If we factor in last season’s first round match-up, the Lightning have lost five of their last six games against the Leafs with all of those losses coming in overtime. Even more annoying, four of those losses were in Tampa.

Tonight the Lightning kick off their last real road trip of the season and are hoping to narrow that six-point gap as they make a last push to get out of the wild card position.The loss to Detroit snapped their points streak, but hopefully they can get another one going.

While the Leafs have righted their ship a bit after losing four out of six games, the Lightning are catching them at a time when they’re still not at full strength. It looks like Morgan Reilly may be back in the line-up tonight, but Mitch Marner, Calle Jarnkrok, Joel Edmundson, and Timothy Liljegren are probably out. So, their depth isn’t quite as strong as it has been in the past, but some of that can be covered up by the fact that they can still roll Auston Matthews (62 goals) and William Nylander (95 points) out there for 20 minutes a night. They have the offense to cover any issues their defense presents.

As for the Bolts. They didn’t necessarily play all that bad against Detroit on Monday. There was a lot of solid zone time, and at 5v5 they carried the play. The few mistakes they made in coverage in front of the net cost them the game, but a little credit has to be given to a desperate Red Wings team fighting for their playoff life.

Their coverage will be tested by a Leafs team that does like to cycle the puck around the offensive zone, relying more on puck possession and zone time then on quick rushes and transition offense (although they have the talent to do that as well). The Lightning’s best chance for success will be to keep the puck as far away from their zone as possible and lean on some of the defensive players that aren’t likely to be playing when Edmundson and Liljegren are back.

It would be nice if they could sustain some pressure on Ilya Samsonov as well. The goalie, who has started Toronto’s last two games, has won his last three outings, but has also allowed three or more goals in four of his last five outings (with a shutout against Buffalo mixed in). He’s also faced 30 or more shots in six of his last seven outings, so maybe the Lightning should cave in and listen to the fans, or Uncle Phil, and just shoot the dang puck.

The Leafs could go with Joseph Woll, who has owned the Lightning in his brief career. While he hasn’t started a game against the Bolts yet this season, he has two wins and a 0.62 GAA against them. In his career he is 3-0 with a .957 SV% and 1.54 GAA.

The season is coming to a head, and with another playoff spot only a few wins out of reach, it’s around that time where looking ahead is more common than one would think. There is a chance the Lightning could return home from this trip with the playoff spot in hand, but in order to do that, they have to focus on the games in front of them. That starts tonight.

Who is hot

Auston Matthews – 7 games – 6 goals, 6 assists, 3.13 iXG

Tyler Bertuzzi – 6 games – 5 goals, 0 assists, 1.77 iXG

John Tavares – 7 games – 1 goal, 5 assists, 1.46 iXG

Who is not

Simon Benoit – 7 games – 0 goals, 1 assist, .05 iXG,

Ryan Reaves – 4 games – 0 goals, 1 assist, 0.24 iXG, 40% SCF%

Stats Match-up

Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards
Anthony Duclair – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Steven Stamkos
Mikey Eyssimont – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee

Tanner Jeannot – Luke Glendening – Tyler Motte

Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Matt Dumba – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix

Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Matt Tomkins

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines

Forwards
Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Max Domi

Bobby McMann – John Tavares – William Nylander

Matthew Knies – Pontus Holmberg – Nick Robertson

Conor Dewar – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Defenders

Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe

T.J. Brodie – Ilya Lyubushkin

Mark Giordano – Conor Timmons

Goalies

Ilya Samsonov

Joseph Woll

The Playoff Race