Game #77
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Location: PPG Paints Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: ABC, ESPN+,
Opponent’s Site: Pensburgh
Preview
As always when these two teams play each other, there are future hall-of-famers littered across the ice. With the Penguins making a valiant push to the playoffs, it seems a certain center named Sidney Crosby has pushed himself into the periphery of the MVP race as well. Look, Sid the Kid is having a heck of a season and has basically put the team on his 36-year-old back, but there is no way he’s winning the Hart Trophy this year. Heck, Nikita Kucherov is going to put up 145 points and probably not win it.
Crosby is having another excellent season with 84 points (39 goals, 45 assists) in 76 games, which makes it his 19th with at least a point-per-game average, and has the Pens on a three-game winning streak and a six-game point streak. The winning ways have vaulted the Penguins back into the playoff race as they sit two points behind the Islanders and Flyers. It’s still going to take a bit of a miracle for them to make it as their final stretch of games is brutal – Tampa Bay, at Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Nashville, and at the Islanders.
One would think they’ve been riding a hot power play or studly goaltending during this stretch, but it’s really been an increase in scoring at 5v5. Since March 21st, they’re 5-1-2 and have scored 22 5v5 goals, tied with the Panthers for the most in the league. They’ve done this despite being underwater on expected goals for (47.49%) and scoring chances (45.38%) so it will be interesting to see if they can continue this run. Their 13.25% shooting percentage is also well above their season average of 8.32%.
Still, with premier talent like Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson, there is the potential to outscore their underlying stats for another week or so, especially if you consider with that talent, they were under performing earlier in the season. It all comes back to the average at some point, right? Meanwhile, their power play hasn’t exactly been helping them out as they’re firing at an anemic 14.3% over that same stretch.
As for the goaltending, Alex Nedeljkovic has taken over as the number one starter. Since March 21st he’s 5-0-2 with a .924 SV% and 2.24 GAA. Evolving Hockey has him at 5.58 GSAx, the fourth-best mark in the league during that time frame (Vasy is at 4.51 during the same stretch and Jake Oettinger is at the top at 7.93). That’s the type of goaltending that Pittsburgh hasn’t really seen over the last couple of years and they need Nedeljkovic to show it’s not a fluke, but something he can sustain for the rest of the season.
As for the Lightning, they have to just keep on keeping on. With their wins against Toronto and Montreal, they’ve reached their regular season goal – make the playoffs. They also have a chance to sweep their three-game road trip and head home with four of their last five games at Amalie Arena. Nikita Kucherov keeps racking up points and Steven Stamkos has found his scoring touch at 5v5. The power play is still scoring and the penalty kill is doing its thing.
The status of forwards Tanner Jeannot, Brandon Hagel, and Anthony Cirelli were still unknown at the time of publication as the Bolts did not practice on Friday. It does sound like, at least in Cirelli’s case, he was taken out for precautionary reasons due to the score of the game at the time. With the playoffs wrapped up, Coach Cooper may choose to give them an extra day off and go with an 11/7 rotation.
Stats Match-up
| Game #77 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| Overall Record | 43-26-7 | 35-30-11 |
| Home Record | 23-10-4 | 20-13-4 |
| Road Record | 20-16-4 | 15-17-7 |
| Goals For | 267 | 228 |
| Goals Against | 246 | 221 |
| xGF | 236.15 | 262.14 |
| xGA | 229.68 | 232.66 |
| Power Play | 29.1% | 14.7% |
| Penalty Kill | 83.0% | 81.5% |
| Last 10 Games | 8-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines
Forwards
Anthony Duclair – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Steven Stamkos – Anthony Cirelli (?) – Brandon Hagel (?)
Mikey Eyssimont – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee
Tyler Motte – Luke Glendening – Austin Watson
Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Calvin de Haan – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Matt Dumba
Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Matt Tomkins
Pittsburgh Penguins Projected Lines
Forwards
Drew O’Connor – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Michael Bunting – Evgeni Malkin – Rickard Rakell
Reilly Smith – Lars Eller – Emil Bemstrom
Jesse Puljujarvi – Jeff Carter – Valtteri Puustinen
Defenders
Pierre-Olivier Joseph – Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson – Erik Karlsson
Ryan Shea – Jack St. Ivany
Goalies
Alex Nedeljkovic
Tristan Jarry
The Playoff Race
| Atlantic Division | Games Played | Record | Points | Games Remaining |
| x – Boston Bruins | 77 | 45-17-15 | 105 | 5 |
| x – Florida Panthers | 77 | 48-24-5 | 101 | 5 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 75 | 43-23-9 | 95 | 7 |
| Wild Card | Games Played | Record | Points | Games Remaining |
| Lightning | 76 | 43-26-7 | 93 | 6 |
| New York Islanders | 76 | 34-27-15 | 83 | 6 |
| Washington Capitals | 75 | 36-29-10 | 82 | 7 |
