Morning After Thoughts will be an ongoing series throughout the playoffs where I can ramble on about the most recent Lightning playoff game. Sometimes it will be structured. Sometimes it will just be a stream of consciousness. Hopefully, I’ll be able to capture what many Lightning fans are thinking, but also provide some perspective after having time to adjust back to normal after a game, take a breath, and take a deeper look at the numbers.
The Lightning started off Game One against the Panthers slow and sluggish. The Panthers immediately established their physicality and forecheck which threw the Lightning off their game for most of the first period. Honestly, that’s what I expected. It’s the first game of the playoffs and the home team especially is going to be amped up in front of their crowd. Give credit to the Lightning though for mostly weathering it, with just the one goal allowed before righting the ship in the last six or seven minutes of the first period and tying it up in a sequence that saw the team get their first, second, and third shots on goal after a face-off win.
Possession stats from NaturalStatTrick.com. Other stats from NHL.com.
Now to the reason for the title. The Panthers outshot the Lightning 28-19 in the game. But shots on goal don’t tell the whole story since it ignores shots that are blocked, shots that miss the net, and doesn’t say anything about the balance of power play time.
While on paper the power plays seemed even, finishing at 3-2 in favor of Florida, the Lightning didn’t get their second until the waning moments of the game. The refs swallowed their whistles on a lot of borderline plays, which is to be expected in the playoffs. It was interesting that for 58 minutes and 49 seconds, the team that has taken the 2nd most penalties in the league (Florida) only took one penalty against the team that was 6th in penalties drawn this season (Tampa Bay) in what was a fairly physical game.
It took a questionable cross checking penalty against Florida with 1:11 left on the clock after Florida had scored an empty net goal to make it 3-1 to get the Lightning their second power play. Up until then the unbalanced power play time led to a 5-1 difference in power play shots on goal, though the Lightning picked up four more shots on goal with the net empty without and then with a power play at the end of the game.
At 5v5, the shot attempts in the game were 51-49 in Florida’s favor. No need to bust out a calculator to do that math. Even when adjusted for score and venue, it only bumps up slightly to 51.58% in Florida’s favor. Where much of the difference in shots on goal comes from is that the Lightning missed the net left and right and over the crossbar. Out of 49 shot attempts, only 12 were blocked (the Lightning blocked 20 of Florida’s 51 shot attempts). Of the remaining 37 unblocked shots, the Lightning missed a staggering 23 shots leading to just 14 shots on goal. In contrast, Florida only missed 9 of their 31 unblocked shot attempts leading to the 22-14 shot on goal advantage for Florida at 5v5.
Overall, I thought the Lightning played pretty good defensively at 5v5. The first 15 minutes or so of the first period were certainly rough, but that resulted in the only even strength goal the Lightning gave up. The Lightning ended up leading the expected goals battle in the first period with their own flurry late in the period. Ultimately, the 5v5 xGF totals for the game came up only slightly favoring the Panthers at 2.28 xGF to the Lightning’s 2.25 xGF. With both goaltenders only allowing one goal despite facing each facing expected goals numbers over two, they did their jobs in net with strong efforts to keep the game lower scoring than it could have been.
For the next game, the Lightning will need to get back to their game plan and dictate the pace of play. They’ll need to continue to play with their own physicality. I’ve always felt this team, from the stars to the depth players, has played better when they are engaged physically. It always seems to amp them up and keep that intensity level high that they need to thrive. When the intensity isn’t there, the whole team struggles.
They’ll also need to find ways to hit the net more consistently. Sergei Bobrovsky has been spectacular this year, but the Lightning have a lot of finishing talent in the line up. Don’t make Bob’s job easier by missing the net. Make him make the saves. I’d also like to see the team mixing it up more around the crease. Use the big bodies of Nick Paul and Anthony Duclair in front. Get the tenaciousness of Mikey Eyssimont and Brandon Hagel going after loose pucks in and around Bobrovsky. Go for those greasy goals that can be the difference in the game, especially from the depth guys.
This team’s power play has been absolutely lethal this season. But as Wes McCauley and Kendrick Nicholson showed in Game One, the Lightning can’t rely on the referees to call penalties, no matter how egregious the penalties appear to be from the stands and the couch. They have to find ways to score at even strength and score regularly to win this series. Those contributions need to come from up and down the line-up. They can’t rely just on Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point to make something happen. They have to have goals like the one Brandon Hagel scored on where the Lightning were all over two rebounds that got Bobrovsky out of position for Hagel to tap in his first goal of the post season.
It’s not the end of things because they lost Game One. Home ice is coveted for a reason. The home team has the advantage in four of the seven games. The goal for the first two games, as it always should be when you’re on the road, is to come home 1-1 and take the home ice advantage for yourself. The Lightning can certainly do that in Game Two. They need Andrei Vasilevskiy to continue to play at a high level as he did in game one. They need to keep the intensity and compete level high from start to finish. They need to limit the momentum swings. They need to hit THE GOSH DARN NET WITH THEIR SHOTS!
Let’s Go Bolts!
