Unlike a lot of teams in the NHL, the Tampa Bay Lightning can be fairly confident in their goaltending situation. For the last few years, and hopefully for the next few, they can write Andrei Vasilevskiy’s name in for 75% of their games and then go on to worry about something else. While it’s comforting for fans at the NHL level, it does make things a little more confusing further down in the organization.
The Lightning depth chart at goaltender is about as deep as a plastic kiddie pool. After Vasilevskiy it’s Hugo Alnefelt and then a bunch of guys. That’s not a bad thing. There really is no sense in wasting what little draft capital they’ve had in the past few years on goaltenders when Vasy is signed through the 2027-28 season. That’s reflected in their draft strategy as they’ve picked just three netminders since the 2019 draft and only one in the last three drafts.
However, it’s still worth looking at the netminders that are in the system so that we can get an idea of what their plan might be for a post-Vasilevskiy world (2028 will be here before you know it).
NHL Level
Andrei Vasilevskiy
60 Games, .915 Save Percentage, 26.41 Goals Saved Above Expectation
Jonas Johansson
(AHL) 26 Games, .920 S%, 2.33 GA
(NHL) 3 Games, .932 S%, 2.10 GA, 3.32 GSAx
Yes, Andrei Vasilevskiy had a bit of a down season last year. Despite the fact that we all thought the sky was falling because he wasn’t at the absurdly high level he had set over the previous few seasons he was still in the top half of most of the counting stats (15th in goals against and 12th in save percentage) while finishing 6th in goals saved above expected. It was an okay season by his standards, but one he wasn’t happy about.
It was likely that the toll of three very long postseason runs finally caught up with him and he admitted that he wasn’t himself in the second half of the season as his body “let him down” a little. We’ve all been there, right? What you could pull off as a 22 year-old gets a little harder as a 28 year-old.
We know that Vasilevskiy is fanatical, one might even say maniacal when it comes to preparation, and it seems like that devotion might have been part of the problem last year. Instead of listening to what his body was telling him, he tried to push through the “small injuries” and his performance on the ice suffered. We also know that Vasilevskiy will learn from this and change his preparation to ensure it doesn’t happen again. He rarely makes the same mistake twice.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bounce back to what we consider his normal level of play. Theoretically, the Lightning shored up their team defense a bit with some of the signings they made up front and that should help Vasilevskiy out as well.
Vasy is entering the fourth year of the 8-year deal he signed back in 2019. With a cap hit of $9.5 million and a no movement-clause through the 2024-25 season he’s not going anywhere any time soon.
He will, however, need a break from time to time, and that brings us to the great unknown – Jonas Johansson. For the first time since Vasilevskiy backed up Ben Bishop, the second netminder on the roster will be a relative unknown. Johnasson was signed to a two-year deal this summer and it broke a trend that had developed under Steve Yzerman and Julien BriseBois of having an experienced veteran sitting on the bench to spell Vasilevskiy when needed.
Johansson isn’t a fledgling young rookie, as he will turn 28 before the season starts and was drafted all the way back in the third round of the 2014 draft by the Buffalo Sabres. He just hasn’t been able to catch on at the NHL level on a consistent basis yet.
He was also lost a bit in the mix in Buffalo, who had a host of young goalies that they were developing like Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. A trade to Colorado didn’t turn into more playing time either. Twice he’s been claimed off of waivers twice in his career (once by Florida and once by Arizona) but ended up back in Colorado, and there was a brief moment when it looked like he’d be heading back to Sweden to play for Farjestad BK, but that transaction was canceled and he remained with the Avalanche organization.
Last season was his best as a professional in North America, and his overall numbers for the three seasons he was with the Avalanche aren’t horrible (20 games, .901 SV%, 2.78 GAA, 60% quality starts). The Lightning are taking a chance that he has figured things out a bit and can give them a chance to win in the 20-24 games he’ll start in place of Vasilevskiy.
The AHL
Hugo Alnefelt
Syracuse Crunch – 33 games, 2.77 GAA, .904 SV%
Matt Tomkins
Farjestad BK Karlstad – 32 games, 2.53 GAA, .911 SV%
Alnefelt is the top goaltender prospect in the Lightning organization and is still just 22 years-old so the organization probably felt it was a little too early in his development to call him up to sit on the bench for the majority of the season. The third-round pick has been on a pretty typical developmental path since coming over from Sweden prior to the 2021-22 season. He spent that first season as a true back-up in Syracuse before moving into a split-starter role last season with Max Lagace.
Injuries have curtailed his playing time a bit, and when he has been healthy he’s been a bit inconsistent. For instance, there was a three-game stretch in February where he stopped 57 of 62 shots (.919 SV%) followed immediately by two games where he gave up 11 goals on 53 shots (.793 SV%). The next step in his evolution is to claim the number one starter role and produce consistent numbers night-in and night-out.
The good news is that he has time to do that. Vasilevskiy is going to be knocking out 60 starts a year for at least the next two or three seasons. If Alnefelt continues to develop, he could slide into a slightly elevated back-up role where he’s getting 30 starts at the NHL level by that time. Alnefelt’s entry-level deal expires at the end of this season, but he’ll be a restricted free agent without arbitration rights and fairly easy to re-sign for the Lightning.
Backing him up this season will be a new face – Matt Tomkins. The 29 year-old from Alberta is returning to North America after playing the last few seasons in Sweden. Originally drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks, Tomkins split his time in the organization in the AHL with Rockford and the ECHL with the Indy Fuel. He’s had a rather good go at in Sweden, first with Frolunda and then with Farjestad BK (the team that Lagace signed with this summer and that Johansson almost went back to last year).
It was notable that he was signed to a two-year deal by the Lightning and speaks a bit to the lack of depth they have at the position right now. Tomkins has a solid resume that includes some time with Team Canada at the 2022 Winter Olympics and should serve as a solid barometer for Alnefelt in Syracuse. He would also likely be the first call-up should, god forbid, an injury occur to either Johansson or Vasilevskiy during the season.
Could either of these netminders challenge Johansson in training camp for the Lightning’s back-up spot? Theoretically, yes. In reality, probably not. Again, with a player Alnefelt’s age, playing games at the AHL level is more conducive to his development than sitting on the bench at the NHL level. Sure, there is a lot he can learn in practice and by observing Vasy on a daily basis, but right now he needs reps at a high level and the AHL can provide that.
A strong training camp for Tomkins might elevate him to the starter’s net in Syracuse, but it’s unlikely to unseat Johansson as the nominal back-up in Tampa. However, that’s what training camp is for, right?
The ECHL
As of right now, there are no goaltenders under a Lightning contract on the Orlando Solar Bears roster. In fact, there is only one goaltender currently listed on their roster – Drennen Atherton, a rookie from Winter Haven, Florida who spent the last few years at Norwich University.
That’s likely to change the closer the Solar Bears get to opening their training camp, but it’s unlikely that any of the Lightning prospects will be heading to the Sunshine State this fall. What is likely to happen is that one or two of their future goaltenders will see some time in Syracuse on a PTO, and if the brass there likes what they see, it could be a pathway into the organization.
More teams are using the ECHL as a development league than they have in the past, and there are likely some forwards or defensemen in the Lightning organization that will see time in Orlando, but their goaltending ranks are so thin right now that there just isn’t anyone to stash there.
The prospects
Nick Malik
KooKoo (Liiga) – 24 games, 2.00 GAA, .891 SV%
Ty Taylor
Glasgow Clan (EIHL) – 17 games, 4.23 GAA, .873 SV%
Vasili Koshechkin
Technically, Malik is the only real prospect on the list. Taylor is on their reserve list, but isn’t likely to return to the organization. Koshechkin is 40 years-old and just announced his retirement after a long and distinguished career in the KHL, but I like listing him here because his rights still technically belong to the Lightning following them drafting him in 2002.
Malik, the son of former Lightning defenseman Marek, was drafted in the fifth round of the 2022 draft by the Bolts and is a bit of a long-term project. After a brief stint with the Soo Greyhounds in 2019-20 season, he’s been playing for KooKoo in the Liiga for the last two seasons and put up respectable numbers for a youngster. He’s still just 21 years-old and signed with the team through this season.
The Lightning are content to let him develop overseas in a highly competitive league for at least one more season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he spends 2024-25 over there as well. It could work out that he comes over after the contracts for Johannson and Tomkins expire. In a perfect world, Alnefelt could slide into the back-up role at the NHL level and Malik could take over in Syracuse. Of course, there are a thousand things that could prevent those plans from coming together, but that might be the long-term goal for the Lightning right now.
One thing the Lightning do have to do this season, is determine if they want to offer him an entry-level contract to retain his draft rights. Since he was drafted as an overager and is playing in a Non-North American league with transfer rights, the Lightning only retain his exclusive rights for two seasons. Those rights are scheduled to expire on June 1, 2024 and should that happen Malik would become a free agent.
Unless he absolutely crashes out this season with KooKoo, the Lightning will likely extend an ELC contract to him and agree to loan him to the team in Finland for another season.
Moving forward, the Lightning are probably going to start drafting a few more goaltenders to replenish the prospect pool as Vasilevskiy begins to age out of his prime seasons. For now though, having one of the best goaltenders in the world means that they can focus on other areas. For the next couple of seasons at least, it’s the Andrei Vasilevskiy show.
