Game #1
Time: 12:30 PM EST
Location: Amerant Bank Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, BSFL, ESPN, ESPN+, Hulu
Opponent’s Site: Litter Box Cats
Know Thine Enemy
* Regular Season Stats
Final record – 52-24-6 (2nd in the Atlantic Divisio)
Leading scorer – Sam Reinhart: 57 goals, 37 assists, 94 points
Leading Goaltender – Sergei Bobrovsky: 58 games, 36 wins, 17 losses, 2.37 GAA, .915 SV%, 18.12 GSAx
Four Questions
Can the Lightning get scoring from players outside of the top line?
During the regular season, the Panthers did a pretty decent job of keeping the Lightning’s top line off of the scoresheet. Despite the different iterations the top three went through, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov were together, and with those two together on the ice, the Panthers only allowed one goal at 5v5. The Point Kucherov duo was also upside down in scoring chances (37.14%) and expected goals (38.18%) while drawing even at high-danger chances.
The Panthers will be focused on shutting down Point, Kucherov, and Anthony Duclair, so it will be on the other three lines to be able to generate offense, especially on the road during these first two games. If Florida turns their attention to the top line, the Steven Stamkos, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel trio could find a little room to work. They will just have to make sure they convert their chances.
The Lightning won’t win this series by relying on the power play and one line. However, if three of the four lines are getting shots on Sergei Bobrovsky, they have a better than average chance to pull off the upset.
Can the Lightning get to the high-scoring areas?
As we mentioned in the series preview, the Panthers don’t give up an unreasonable amount of scoring chances, but the ones they do, tend to be from high-scoring areas. Bobrovsky’s save percentage on high-danger shots – .822. That’s 30th in the league at 5v5 according to Natural Stat Trick. If the Lightning can get to the front of the net, and get shots through from the points, they have a chance to score on Florida.
Will the Lightning be able to break the Panthers’ forecheck?
Florida is going to harass the Lightning defense down low. There is absolutely no doubt about that. The question concerns the ability of Tampa Bay’s defense to move the puck quickly and not turn it over in dangerous spots. The blueliners will have to get to the puck quickly and make the right decisions in passing to their partners or rimming it around the boards.
If they can handle the puck cleanly and quickly start moving it up to their forwards, the Bolts have a chance to catch Florida in transition. What they can’t do is fumble the puck or make passes to areas where they think their teammates are. They have to have an idea of where their support is and know what they’re going to do once the puck is on their stick.
How special will special teams be?
In the regular season, the Lightning were just 2-for-14 on the power play against the Panthers while also surrendering two short-handed goals. So, in reality, their power play produced zero goals for them. That’s not great. On the flip side, Florida was 4-for-14 against them with an extra skater. Special teams were a big strength for the Lightning in the regular season and they need them to be again in this series.
Early in the playoffs, refs have a tendency to call penalties. In fact, they tend to call them at a higher rate than in the regular season. As a series goes on, and the deeper into the playoffs we get, the whistles aren’t blown quite as often. So, the Lightning need to take advantage when they can, which is right now.
The Bolts had an elite power play unit this season. Yes, it went through slumps, but in the end, they were scoring once every three opportunities. If they can do that early in the series, it will go a long way to helping them pull out a couple of wins.
Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines
Forwards
Anthony Duclair – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Steven Stamkos
Mikey Eyssimont – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee
Tanner Jeannot – Luke Glendening – Tyler Motte
Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Nick Perbix – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Matt Dumba
Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Matt Tomkins
Lines were based on practice on Saturday. Everyone but Jonas Johansson was on the ice including Mikhail Sergachev, who won’t play in the first round. Luke Glendening and Tyler Motte could still be question marks as Coach Cooper wasn’t willing to guarantee they would be in the line-up for Game One.
Florida Panthers Projected Lines
Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe – Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Evan Rodrigues
Ryan Lomberg – Kevin Stenlund – Nick Cousins
Defenders
Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola – Brandon Montour
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Dmitri Kulikov
Goalies
Sergei Bobrobsky
Anthony Stolarz
Lines based on practice with Aaron Ekblad returning to the line-up.
