We’re finally getting around to reviewing the 2022-23 season. Instead of assigning grades or any of that nonsense, we’ll start by looking at the player’s best goal from the season and go from there. For some it’ll be easy, others have way more to choose from.
Player:
Ian Cole
Stat Line:
78 games, 3 goals, 14 assists, 61 PIM, 109 shots, 4.09 iXG (5v5), 117 hits, 19:23 ice time
(playoffs) 6 games, 1 goal, 2 assists, 4 PIM, 1 shot, 0.29 iXG (5v5) 10 hits, 18:48 ice time
Goal of the Year Video:
NHL.com
Goal of the year description:
Normally when someone scores from center ice it should be their best goal of the year, but I couldn’t quite give this one to Ian Cole. Instead let’s go with his first goal in a Lightning uniform.
If you needed to explain to a non-Lightning fan what the Bolts like to do in the offensive zone with the puck, this would be a pretty good example. They win the puck battles along the boards, work it to the point for a shot from Victor Hedman and then the loose puck off the rebound before Cole tucks it into the net.
Cole did an excellent job of drifting into the open space and presenting a target for Nick Paul to get the puck over to him. Credit to Paul for getting the puck over to him with his skate since his stick was tied up by the defender in front of the net. Cole makes a delicate first touch on a rolling puck and dekes a pretty good goaltender in Jake Oettinger before tucking it into the net.
This goal is also a great example of how the line between success and failure is a pretty fine line. While the Lightning did score on this play there were a couple of instances when things could have gone really bad, really fast.
The first replay picks up with Alex Killorn bringing the puck down the boards and he actually loses possession. For the briefest of moments Miro Heiskanen has the puck on his stick and two teammates wide open in the neutral zone. If Heiskanen can control the puck and get it out, Dallas will have numbers going the other way as Cole appears to just be sliding into position after a line change. Killorn and Paul are able to win that battle and get the puck behind the net and danger is averted.
Likewise, after the Hedman shot from the point, Heiskanen is tied up on the rebound and if he doesn’t whiff on his initial swing at the puck, he could have sent Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz (I think) on a two-on-one the other way as four of the Lightning skaters would have been trapped down low.
How did the 2022-23 season go for them?
From a high-level perspective, Ian Cole pretty much did what the Lightning expected him to do when they signed him to a one-year deal early in the free agent process.
His season debut was delayed while the NHL investigated a sexual assault claim brought against him by an individual on Twitter that was identified as Emily Smith. The league closed its investigation a few days later after they were unable to substantiate the allegations.
For most of the season, Cole was paired with Erik Cernak and they provided a strong defensive duo for coach Jon Cooper. Their 2.86 XGA/60 at 5v5 was the best out of any pairing that spent significant time together (607 minutes).
Cole was pretty much the standard bearer for stay-at-home defensemen last year. He didn’t provide much offense, but was solid in his own zone.
Still, to the eye test it seemed that there were stretches in the season where he seemed a little worn down and behind the play. Granted, that could be said for most of the team. The Bolts front office probably didn’t envision him playing almost 20 minutes a game during the season either.
Cole was always going to be looked at, unfairly, as the “Ryan McDonagh replacement” since he was signed to fill a spot on the left side after McDonagh was traded off to the Nashville Predators in a salary cap move. If you remove that context, the Cole signing was a successful one. Evolving Hockey had him at 2.6 Standing Points Above Replacement (SPAR) due to his defensive performance. They equate that to a contract value of $8.8 million.
2023-24 Contract Status
Unrestricted Free Agent
Do we expect them to score more or less next season?
He’ll probably score two or three goals next year, but it’s unlikely he’ll do it with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Even if he’s willing to return for the same $3 million salary that he played for last year, that may be a little too rich for the cap-strapped Lightning. Tampa Bay is likely to replace him with an internal option or find a more cost-effective solution on the free agent market.
