Game #2 – Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
Time: 7:30 PM EST
Location: Amerant Bank Arena
Broadcast/Streaming: BSSUN, BSFL, ESPN2, ESPN+, Hulu
Series: Florida 1, Tampa Bay 0
Game One – Panthers 3, Lightning 2
Opponent’s Site: Litter Box Cats
Know Thine Enemy
- The Panthers were 3-1 in Game Two’s last season. Their one loss was to the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final.
- Matthew Tkachuk had a goal and an assist on four shots in Game One. He posted a team-high (tied with Sam Reinhart) 1.33 iXG.
- Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 17 of 19 shots with a 0.64 GSAx.
Four Questions
Who will be in the line-up tonight?
The Lightning called up Max Crozier on Monday and the rookie took regular rushes with Emil Lilleberg. Could he make his NHL playoff debut tonight? It’s possible according to head coach Jon Cooper. Nick Perbix was not at practice due to a “maintenance day” and Erik Cernak took a pretty big hit towards the end of the game. With Haydn Fleury’s status in doubt to an undisclosed injury from the end of the regular season, Crozier might have to be the next man up.
The line-up question isn’t limited to just the blueline as Tyler Motte was also missing from practice with the mysterious maintenance day designation. Conor Sheary took his spot on the fourth line in practice and would likely slot in if Motte isn’t able to go.
Injuries are part of the playoffs and very few teams have raised the Stanley Cup without having to make some line-up changes. Still, having to adjust things after Game One is rough.
Will there be more power play opportunities for the Lightning?
The refs let the teams play in Game One. In total there were just five power plays despite the teams combining for 114 hits. The Bolts had two power plays, one that was pretty ineffective in the middle of the game, and one at the end of the game that they were able to convert with a 6-on-4 advantage.
When asked about the Bolts power play, head coach Paul Maurice first deferred stating that he didn’t run the penalty kill with a smile on his face. He followed that with, “Don’t take many.”
That really is the key. If the Panthers keep giving the Lightning chances on the power play, Tampa Bay will make them pay, as they have throughout history. In 11 career playoff games against the Panthers, the Lightning power play is 35.1%. It’s a serious advantage for the Bolts, so they need to find ways to get there.
There is no secret to drawing penalties, they need possession of the puck in dangerous areas. If they can do that, and get Florida chasing them, it will lead to transgressions on their part. Keeping the physical play going can also help. The Panthers are an emotional team and can be baited into retaliatory hits. With a different officiating crew calling tonight’s game, perhaps some of the hits that the team got away with in Game One will get called tonight.
Can the Lightning get their radar recalibrated?
As Geo pointed out yesterday, the Lightning missed the net a lot. Like, a really lot. They missed the net 23 out of 37 times on unblocked shots. Now, as a whole, they tend to miss the net frequently as a lot of their shots are coming for distance and they are looking for tips and deflections. Still, missing 62% of their shots is a tough way to win. Were they trying to be too precise or were the Panthers doing a good job of not letting them get good looks at the net. Honestly, a little bit of both.
As this visual representation from Hockey Viz shows, the Bolts did get plenty of chances from good shooting locations. They just missed the net (the grey icons).
They have to find ways to get those shots from in front of the net onto Bobrovsky to force him to make saves. They have to find a way to create more chaos in front of the net. The Brandon Hagel goal was a prime example. Two shots got on net and Bob was out of position when Hagel took the third shot for the game-tying goal.
How much trouble are the Lightning in if they lose tonight?
It wouldn’t be great. Yes, the age-old adage is that a team isn’t in trouble until they lose on home ice, but the truth is that winning four out of six games against one of the best teams in the NHL is a pretty tall task. More importantly, will be how the game goes. If the Lightning struggle with the forecheck, if they can’t get sustain their offense in Florida’s zone, and if they continuously turn pucks over, then things will be really bleak.
If they play well and lose 3-2 due to a fluky double-deflection goal, that’s still a loss. They showed that they can hang with the Panthers. After a tough first 15 minutes of Game One, they recovered and played well over the final 45 minutes. Now they need to show they can be better than the Panthers. Process is important, but they’re at a point in the season where they need wins. No one raises banners for “played well, but lost” playoff series.
It’s not quite a must-win game, but it’s close.
Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines
Forwards
Anthony Duclair – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Steven Stamkos
Mikey Eyssimont – Tyler Motte – Mitchell Chaffee
Tanner Jeannot – Luke Glendening – Conor Sheary (?)
Defenders
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Matt Dumba – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Max Crozier (?)
Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Matt Tomkins
Florida Panthers Projected Lines
Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe – Sam Bennett – Matt Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Evan Rodrigues
Ryan Lomberg – Kevin Stenlund – Nick Cousins
Defenders
Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola – Brandon Montour
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Dmitri Kulikov
Goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky
Anthony Stolarz
